Aengus Moorehead NFL Football Week 7 Betting Picks

Saturday, October 23, 2010

by Aengus Moorehead

Greetings Lasses and Lads

Six weeks of play are said and done in the NFL, and the theme of the sixth week of NFL betting action was teams that were favoured to win the Super Bowl at the outset of the season are in a boatload of trouble.

In one of the toughest games of last weekend to handicap, the Dallas Cowboys were knocked off by a touchdown by the Minnesota Vikings at Mall of America Field. The Vikes are sitting pretty now even though they are just 2-3, but with both the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers struggling, they are going to near the top of the NFL odds to win the NFC North this year.

As for the Cowboys, things just aren't right. The defeat dropped them to 1-4 SU and ATS on the season, and they are two games behind both the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East with little hope of capturing a Wild Card berth into the postseason.

The San Diego Chargers aren't in a significantly better situation. For the second straight week, they were defeated on the road by a team they had no business losing to, as the St Louis Rams picked up the biggest upset of the weekend as 8.5 point underdogs. The Bolts were, for a second straight week, a very public choice as well, making it a tremendous shock that they were beaten outright.

San Diego is still only two games behind the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West, but at just 2-4 SU and ATS with all four losses coming on the road, there is definitely cause for concern.

The oddsmakers and Bodog Sportsbook really did a nice job of making pro football lines in Week 6 betting action. Nine of the games finished within six points of the closing spreads, while the only one that ended more than 20 points apart was the Monday Night Football blowout in favor of the Tennessee Titans over the Jacksonville Jaguars.

My record against the spread:
Last week: 7-7.
Season: 45-45.
This week’s blue chip prediction: Tennessee (-2.5) over Philadelphia
This week’s upset special: NY Giants (+2.5) over Dallas
Blowout of the week: New Orleans over Cleveland

Idle Teams: Detroit-Indianapolis-NY Jets-Houston.

- Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) at Atlanta Falcons

Last week’s result:
Cincinnati was idle. Atlanta (+3.5) loses to host Philadelphia 31-17.

Last week against the Spread:
Atlanta loses and does not cover.

Analysis:
The Hawks were clearly outplayed on Sunday at Philadelphia and now their defense ranks 24th in passing yards allowed. Against Carson Palmer and standouts like Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco, that might be a problem. However, playing at home, the Falcons defense will regroup and QB Matt Ryan will have a good game. Take Falcons.

Be a player and bet on Cincinnati (+3.5) at Atlanta at Bodog Sportsbook

- Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5) at Kansas City Chiefs

Last week’s result:
Jacksonville (+3.5) loses to visiting Tennessee 30-3. Kansas City (+4.5) loses to host Houston 35-31.

Last week against the Spread:
Jacksonville loses and does not cover; Kansas City loses but covers.

Analysis:
While the Chiefs have lost two straight games, the Jaguars have far more issues to deal with. Between coming off a blowout loss, having a short week to prepare and dealing with an uncertain quarterback situation, it's a lot to expect Jacksonville to win this game. The Chiefs, after two weeks on the road, will have all the comforts of home and with their strong running game should be able to exert their will on the Jaguars. Take Chiefs.

Be a player and bet on Jacksonville (+4.5) at Kansas City at Bodog Sportsbook

- Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) at Tennessee Titans

Last week’s result:
Philadelphia (-3.5) beats visiting Atlanta 31-17. Tennessee (-3.5) beats host Jacksonville 30-3.

Last week against the Spread:
Philadelphia covers; Tennessee covers.

Analysis:
A year ago, the Titans were 0-6 and coming off a 59-0 beating by the Patriots. But it's been a big turnaround since -- 12-4 over the last 16 games -- and the Titans finally seem to be putting it all together this season. With Chris Johnson leading the way, the Titans will move the ball against the Eagles, and the team's defense will harass QB Kevin Kolb, who will be without one of his biggest playmakers in DeSean Jackson. Take Titans.

Be a player and bet on Philadelphia (+2.5) at Tennessee at Bodog Sportsbook

- Cleveland Browns (+12.5) at New Orleans Saints

Last week’s result:
Cleveland (+14.5) loses to host Pittsburgh 28-10. New Orleans (-4.5) beats host Tampa Bay 31-6.

Last week against the Spread:
Cleveland loses and does not cover. New Orleans covers.

Analysis:
The Browns are a better team than their 1-5 record indicates. They’ve been competitive in every game -- including last week’s 28-10 road loss at Pittsburgh, which didn’t get out of hand until late. But they are limited at the quarterback position, which puts them at a huge disadvantage, especially against a team with Super Bowl MVP Drew Brees at quarterback.

The Saints have a better record at 4-2, but they will be just as motivated to prove that they’re better than they’ve shown so far this season. And they’re hoping to build off the momentum from their first dominant win of the season last week at Tampa Bay. If they can show that kind of balance with the run game, passing game and defense again, this game could be just as lopsided. Take Saints.

Be a player and bet on Cleveland (+12.5) at New Orleans at Bodog Sportsbook

- Buffalo Bills (+13.5) at Baltimore Ravens

Last week’s result:
Buffalo was idle. Baltimore (+3.5) loses to host New England 23-20.

Last week against the Spread:
Baltimore loses but covers.

Analysis:
The Ravens gave away the game last week against the Patriots, and the Bills appear to be the perfect opponent to play heading into the bye week. Even if the Ravens look past them, they still have too much firepower for Buffalo. Take Ravens.

Be a player and bet on Buffalo (+13.5) at Baltimore at Bodog Sportsbook

- San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers

Last week’s result:
San Francisco (-6.5) beats visiting Oakland 17-9. Carolina was idle.

Last week against the Spread:
San Francisco covers.

Analysis:
The Panthers could easily turn the tide in this one by setting off a false alarm at the 49ers hotel the night before. Early kickoffs on the East Coast are trouble anyway, and San Francisco hasn't looked capable of doing much except late last week against the Raiders. Carolina, on the other hand, hasn't looked good at any aspect other than defense, regardless of time of day.

Plugging QB Matt Moore back into the lineup is a desperate move for the Panthers, especially because he's working with a mixed bag of wideouts (three rookies, David Clowney and Devin Thomas, who weren't on the roster when he last started). If the Panthers can do even a little when they have the ball, they have a chance to get one in the win column against a team nearly as dysfunctional as they are. Take Panthers.

Be a player and bet on San Francisco (-2.5) at Carolina at Bodog Sportsbook

- St Louis Rams (+2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Last week’s result:
St-Louis (+8.5) beats visiting San Diego 20-17. Tampa Bay (+4.5) loses to visiting New Orleans 31-6.

Last week against the Spread:
St-Louis upsets; Tampa Bay loses and does not cover.

Analysis:
Both teams probably are looking at this game as one they should win. The Bucs have had problems stopping the run and eliminating big plays, and one week isn't enough to correct those areas. The Rams have some momentum coming off a victory over the Chargers, and their running game is probably good enough to beat the Bucs all by itself. Take Rams.

Be a player and bet on St-Louis (+2.5) at Tampa Bay at Bodog Sportsbook

- Arizona Cardinals (+5.5) at Seattle Seahawks

Last week’s result:
Arizona was idle. Seattle (+7.5) beats host Chicago 23-20.

Last week against the Spread:
Seattle upsets.

Analysis:
The Cardinals offense is gaining the second-fewest yards in the league. Arizona's defense is allowing the fourth-most points in the league and the Cardinals are 3-2 despite being outscored 138-88. The balance of power in the division may be about to shift, as Seattle is coming off its best game of the year in Chicago and Arizona will be starting Max Hall. Since Qwest Field opened in 2002, Tampa Bay's Josh Freeman is the only rookie quarterback who has won at the stadium. Take Seahawks.

Be a player and bet on Arizona (+5.5) at Seattle at Bodog Sportsbook

- Oakland Raiders (+7.5) at Denver Broncos

Last week’s result:
Oakland (+6.5) loses to host San Francisco. Denver (+3.5) loses to visiting NY Jets 24-20.

Last week against the Spread:
Oakland loses and does not cover; Denver loses and does not cover.

Analysis:
Denver went through the meat-grinder portion of its schedule and came away with a 1-3 mark against Indianapolis, Tennessee, Baltimore and the Jets. In all but the Ravens game, the Broncos competed hard against some of the AFC favorites despite incurring numerous injuries. None of that will matter if they can't beat Oakland and start to gain momentum. Following the Raiders, a winnable game vs. 1-5 San Francisco in London looms. And if the Broncos can somehow go 4-4 in the season's first half, it will present playoff possibilities. Broncos win but Raiders keep it close. Take points and Raiders.

Be a player and bet on Oakland (+7.5) at Denver at Bodog Sportsbook

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Aengus Moorehead NFL Football Week 7 Betting Picks

by Aengus Moorehead

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