NFL Pick: Power Struggle On Tap When San Francisco Visits Baltimore
Thursday, November 24, 2011
by Aengus Moorehead
Analysis:
San Francisco 49ers first-year coach Jim Harbaugh said he didn't know until after he was hired that he would be facing his brother John's Baltimore Ravens on Thanksgiving Day.
Thankfully the NFL had the foresight to schedule what has turned out to be a huge game for both clubs.
While much of the focus is on the first NFL game in which sibling head coaches will face one another -- especially given the tradition of the holiday -- the focus for Jim Harbaugh and the 49ers will be a shot at wrapping up a playoff berth.
Standing in the way is older brother John, whose Ravens will look to halt the Niners' eight-game winning streak and maintain their hold on the top spot in the AFC North in Thursday's matchup from M&T Bank Stadium.
Jim Harbaugh has done an excellent job as the 49ers' sideline boss since leaving the college ranks at Stanford to take over a team that hasn't made the playoffs since 2002. That can change with a win over the Ravens on Thursday and a loss by Seattle to visiting Washington on Sunday.
Despite a 9-1 record that is the second-best in the NFL behind only the 10-0 Green Bay Packers, San Francisco knows that it has a tough task ahead. The 49ers must travel to the East Coast on a short week, though playing on the road hasn't been a problem for the club in 2011. San Francisco has prevailed in all four of its games as the guest this year and will be attempting to win its first five road contests in a season since coming out on top in all eight in 1990.
The 49ers bring an eight-game win streak into this meeting, their best since an 11-game run during the 1997 season. San Francisco extended the tear with a 23-7 win over visiting Arizona last weekend and clinched its first winning season since 2002.
Alex Smith broke open a close game with a pair of touchdown passes in the third quarter for San Francisco, which ranks second in the NFL with a plus-111 scoring differential. The Niners haven't lost since an overtime defeat to Dallas on Sept. 18.
San Francisco is playing its fourth Thanksgiving game in franchise history and first since Nov. 23, 1972. The Ravens franchise is playing on the holiday for the first time in its history and is coming off a 31-24 victory over Cincinnati that pushed its record to 7-3 on the season. That is tied with Pittsburgh for the best mark in the division, but Baltimore has bested the Steelers twice this season to hold the tiebreaker.
Time & Venue:
- 8:20 PM ET, Thursday, November 24, 2011. M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland
Last Week's results:
- San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) beats visiting Arizona Cardinals 23-7.
- Baltimore Ravens (-7) beats Cincinnati Bengals 31-24.
Last week's ATS:
- Favourite San Francisco 49ers (9-1) wins and covers
- Favourite Baltimore Ravens (7-3) pushed.
NFL Football Odds: Ravens -3, O/U 40
Next up:
- San Francisco home to St. Louis, Sunday, December 4
- Baltimore at Cleveland, Sunday, December 4
A San Francisco win and a Seattle loss to Washington on Sunday clinches the NFC West, though at this point the 49ers have loftier goals. Last Sunday’s 23-7 victory clinched the franchise’s first winning season since 2002 and marked the 32nd straight game in which San Francisco’s defense has held an opponent under 100 yards rushing. The 49ers lead the NFL with a plus-17 turnover margin.
Baltimore bounced back from a loss at Seattle by earning a key division win over the Cincinnati Bengals last week. Joe Flacco continued his up-and-down season by posting a 105.5 rating after putting up a 67.4 in the Seattle loss. Running at the San Francisco defense will be Ray Rice, who went for 104 yards and two touchdowns last week to reach the century mark for the first time since Week 6.
The 49ers make their living on the ground, keeping the pressure off of Alex Smith. San Francisco got all three of its running backs work last week and will likely spread the workload out again to keep fresh legs going against the Ravens' run defense.
Jim Harbaugh mentioned in his press conference the challenge of traveling to the East Coast, but the Niners have already picked up wins at Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Detroit and Washington this year. He has done a great job of getting San Francisco road ready, but the team will face its biggest travel adversity of this year this week.
The Ravens average just under 100 yards per game on the ground, but that doesn't take away from Rice's importance. The small back has six touchdowns in his past four games, though last week was just his third 100-yard rushing game. San Francisco certainly has the talent in Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman to contain the playmaker, and this matchup is certainly the one to watch.
"It's about football. I'm sure both of our focuses are going to be on the game and out teams." – John Harbaugh, when asked if he and his brother would be taking some time out for turkey. "There's really no time for anything else."
49ers tight end Vernon Davis passed Brent Jones for first in franchise history with his 34th touchdown last week.
Ravens LB Ray Lewis missed last week with a foot injury and is questionable for Thursday.
Baltimore is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Baltimore is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games
San Francisco is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games on the road
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Thanksgiving is traditionally about family, but Jim and John Harbaugh will certainly be putting their blood ties aside this Thursday. As the home team, the Ravens will certainly be favored, but the 49ers have been proving doubters wrong for eight straight games. However, the odds of San Francisco running the table from here on out is pretty slim and the club is due for a letdown. Baltimore's defense is the best that the Niners have faced at this point and should offer the club a bit of a reality check.
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NFL Football Pick: Take Ravens.
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Tags
alex smith - arizona cardinals - baltimore ravens - cicinnati bengals - green bay packers - jim harbaugh - joe flacco - m t bank stadium - navorro bowman - patrick willis
