NFL Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals Face Faltering Houston Texans

Friday, January 06, 2012

by Aengus Moorehead

Analysis:
When the Cincinnati Bengals jettisoned its disgruntled star quarterback Carson Palmer to Oakland, few expected rookie Andy Dalton to have the Cincinnati Bengals in the playoffs this season. That's a few more than expected to see T.J. Yates guiding the Houston Texans in the postseason, although he did stumbled towards the end of the season.

When the Texans host the Bengals in Saturday's wild card matchup at Reliant Stadium, it will mark the first time in the Super Bowl era that two rookie quarterbacks have started against one another in a playoff game.

It will also mark the second time Dalton and Yates have squared off in the past month. On Dec. 11, Yates threw the winning touchdown pass with two seconds to play as Houston rallied for a 20-19 win at Cincinnati and clinched its first AFC South title – and first postseason berth.

Thanks to a solid core of quarterback Matt Schaub, wide receiver Andre Johnson and linebackers Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans, the Texans have been viewed as a team on the rise for the past few seasons, but they finally broke out this year by capturing an inaugural AFC South title and first trip to the postseason. Houston's 10-6 mark included a seven-game win streak that was capped with that 20-19 victory over the Bengals.

That win was Houston's third without Schaub, who was lost for the season with a foot injury. Backup Matt Leinart appeared in just one game before his season was also cut short due to a shoulder injury, forcing rookie Yates into the starting role.

The Texans' defense has also been without Williams since early October because of a pectoral ailment, while Johnson was forced to sit out nine games this season thanks to injuries to both his hamstrings.

Still, Houston survived under Yates, but did get a scare when he was forced out of the club's 23-22 loss to Tennessee in the regular-season finale due to an injury to his non-throwing shoulder. Head coach Gary Kubiak said on Monday that he thinks Yates could have came back into the game and should be ready to go for this playoff opener.

The Texans haven't won since Yates rallied his team from a 16-3 halftime deficit to beat the Bengals on a six-yard pass to Kevin Walter with only two seconds left on the clock. Houston has lost three straight since.

Cincinnati wasn't at its best when it had a two-game win streak snapped with a 24-16 loss to Baltimore last Sunday. Still, the Bengals backed into the AFC's sixth seed thanks to some help to return to the postseason for the second time in three years. They were one-and-done in 2009 despite an AFC North title and are in as a Wild Card team this year for the first time since 1975.

After nabbing Pro Bowl wide receiver A.J. Green with the fourth overall pick in the 2011 draft and handing starting quarterback duties over to fellow rookie Dalton, a second-round pick, the Bengals improved by five wins from last year.

Both Dalton and Bengals running back Cedric Benson have excelled in the state of Texas before. Cincinnati's rookie signal-caller is from the Houston area and played collegiately at TCU, while Benson attended the University of Texas.

Last month's matchup was the sixth all-time meeting between Cincinnati and Houston, with the Texans now having taken the last three bouts after the Bengals prevailed in the first three games of the series. Cincinnati is 1-1 against the Texans at Reliant Stadium, registering a 38-3 rout there in a 2003 encounter and suffering a 35-6 road loss to Houston in 2008, and hasn't bested the Texans since a 16-10 home triumph on Oct. 2, 2005.

Cincinnati's Marvin Lewis has gone 2-3 against Houston during his nine-year tenure as the Bengals' head coach, while Kubiak sports a 3-0 record against both Cincinnati and Lewis as a head man.

The Bengals are 0-2 in playoff games under Lewis, having dropped a 31-17 decision to Pittsburgh in a 2005 AFC First-Round clash and a 24-14 result to the New York Jets in the 2009 opening round. Both those contests were held in Cincinnati.

Time & Venue:
- 4:30 PM ET, Saturday, January 7, 2012. Reliant Stadium, Houston, Texas

Last Week's results:
- Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5) loses to visiting Baltimore Ravens 24-16.
- Houston Texans (+3) loses to Tennessee Titans 23-22.

Last week's ATS:
- Underdog Cincinnati Bengals (9-7) loses and does not cover
- Underdog Houston Texans (10-6) loses but covers.

NFL Football Odds: Texans -3, O/U 38.5

Team records:
- Cincinnati Bengals: 9-7 SU, 8-6-2 ATS
- Houston Texans: 10-6 SU, 11-5 ATS

Cincinnati squeezed into the playoffs despite losing its season finale to Baltimore. The Bengals are 0-7 against playoff teams and own just one victory over a team with a winning record (Tennessee, 9-7). Dalton was back at practice Thursday after missing the previous day with the flu.

His favorite target Green, went over 1,000 yards on the season. Dalton threw for 189 yards and one TD and Cincy scored only three second-half points in the first matchup. Benson, who had his third consecutive 1,000-yard season, rushed for 91 yards on 21 carries in last month’s meeting.

Yates was knocked out of last week’s loss to Tennessee with a separated left shoulder, but will play Saturday. Houston should get a big boost with the return of star Johnson, who has missed nine games with two hamstring injuries. He’ll provide a compliment to a powerful running attack that averaged 153.0 yards per game, No. 2 in the league. Arian Foster amassed 1,224 yards and 10 TDs in only 13 games and backup Ben Tate rushed for 942.

Bengals kicker Mike Nugent set a club record with 132 points one year after missing seven games of the 2010 campaign due to a knee injury. He hit on 33- of-38 field goals, while punter Kevin Huber averaged 44.2 yards on 91 punts while pinning 24 inside the 20-yard line. Brandon Tate is a dual threat for the Bengals, as he returns kickoffs and punts. His 543 punt return yards in 2011 were a new club record.

Jacoby Jones is Houston's punt returner and took one back to the end zone for a score over the course of the regular season, while Danieal Manning averaged 27.4 yards on 13 kickoff returns. Sherrick McManis fielded 10 kickoffs for an average of 20.5 yards to help. Kicker Neil Rackers made 32 field goals, including four from beyond 50 yards, With rookie punter Brett Hartmann on injured reserve, veteran Matt Turk has averaged 42.7 yards on 16 punts in relief since being re- signed last month.

Foster was limited to only 41 yards on 15 carries by Cincinnati in Week 14.

The Bengals will be looking for their first playoff win since the 1990 season.

Dalton grew up in Texas and went 3-0 at Reliant Stadium as a high school and college QB.

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 8 games at home
Houston is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Houston's last 13 games
Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Cincinnati is 6-1-2 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Cincinnati is 1-5-2 ATS in its last 8 games

This AFC Wild Card meeting will pit the defensively-sound Bengals against a Texans club that can rack up points and yards at a rapid pace. Houston's offense could be limited a bit under Yates, so Foster will be the key. Cincinnati, meanwhile, plays disciplined offense and waits for its defense to create chances, meaning the Bengals will need to keep the scoring down to have a chance at victory.

However, shutting down both Foster and Andre Johnson could prove to be too much, and former friend CB Johnathan Joseph could bottle up Dalton's best weapon in Green. In the end, expect the Texans to earn their first-ever playoff victory as well.

Bet on NFL Football games with Bovada Sportsbook, Click here!

NFL Football Pick: Take Texans.

Bovada Odds & Lines

Live Scores & Odds

Live Major Events Odds

Online Sportsbooks

LATEST ARTICLES

ARTICLE CATEGORY

NFL Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals Face Faltering Houston Texans

by Aengus Moorehead

Related Articles

Category

Tags

Share this page