Week 11 NFL Picks - Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, November 21, 2010
by Aengus Moorehead
Weather: Game is being played in a dome.
Last week’s result:
Green Bay was idle. Minnesota (-1.5) loses to host Chicago 27-13
Last week against the Spread:
Minnesota loses outright.
Analysis:
The Green Bay Packers, already owning one win over the Minnesota Vikings, can sweep the season series between the two teams and gain leverage in the NFC North Division.
The Minnesota Vikings are a team in turmoil, as everyone knows, but they’re also a wounded team. Receiver Sidney Rice, who has been out of action through week 10, might come back in this game, but his return isn’t certain, meaning that he’s not going to be in peak form and will spend time getting re-acquainted with quarterback Brett Favre, who’s not exactly the picture of health and strength right now. Minnesota receiver Bernard Berrian tweaked his groin in last Sunday’s 27-13 loss at the Chicago Bears, and receiver Percy Harvin aggravated an ankle injury that’s been giving him problems in addition to persistent large-scale migraine headaches that have sent Harvin to the hospital at certain points in time.
Favre has nobody to throw to other than tight end Visanthe Shiancoe, and given the dissension in the Vikings’ locker room due to the ways in which coach Brad Childress has alienated various players, it’s very hard to see how Minnesota, at 3-6 and basically on its deathbed, will find enough points or enough passion to win this game against a team of Green Bay’s caliber.
Moreover, the Green Bay Packers are coming off a bye week, so they will wind up having two weeks to prepare for this game and will be appreciably fresh. It’s also worth pointing out that the Packers’ defense has allowed a total of just seven points in its last two games. Coach Mike McCarthy’s team is well positioned to win as long as Aaron Rodgers displays good ball security on Sunday.
The Vikings will treat this game as one last rally-around-the-flag moment in 2010. They’re banged up and they’re moody, but when the Green Bay Packers are the opponent, the pride returns to the Vikings’ sideline, especially at home in the Metrodome where Aaron Rodgers’ composure will certainly be tested. The possibility that Sidney Rice will return (although it’s uncertain at this point) will definitely give Minnesota a chance to spread the field more on offense. Even if Rice is not at his best – and frankly, it’s not likely that he will be – the Vikings can still use Rice as something of a decoy and carve up the field the way they want to. Rice’s absence has been a huge factor in Minnesota’s offensive struggles this season, so that one change could bring about a transformation of the Vikings’ offense.
One should also note that the last time these two teams played in Green Bay, the Packers won only because Percy Harvin’s foot barely landed out of bounds on the end line, wiping out a last-minute catch that was initially ruled a touchdown by the on-field officials. Without instant replay and without the elimination of the NFL’s “force-out” rule on legal pass catches, Minnesota would have scored a 31-28 win. It’s not as though the Vikings were clearly outclassed by the Packers. They can compete with Green Bay even in a diminished capacity.
The Minnesota Vikings are close to going belly up, but they should have one last gasp left in them. They're 3-1 at home this season and 12-1 at home with Favre at quarterback. Four of the Vikings' next five games are at the Metrodome, so there's still a glimmer of hope despite a 3-6 record that no one saw coming. Look for the Vikings to play with a sense of desperation. They know they can run on the Packers, and the crowd noise should help the pass rush get to QB Aaron Rodgers more than it did at Green Bay earlier in the season. Take Vikings.
Be a player and bet on Green Bay (-3.5) at Minnesota at SBG Global Sportsbook
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aaron rodgers - bernard berrian - brad childress - brett favre - green bay packers - metrodome - mike mccarthy - minnesota vikings - percy harvin - sidney rice
